# /home/siddhi

Software, Geekery and other miscellany

## Probability Space vs Consequence Space

Since I have been writing about unexpected statistical outcomes due to skews in the dataset, I thought I'd take a look at Nassim Taleb's twitter to see what he has been tweeting about. I came across this tweet

This is quite an interesting tweet. Taleb mentions two terms: Probability space …

## Statistics is Unintuitive (Part 2)

Here is another day to day situation where statistics can be very unintuitive.

Lets say we have a medical test that has 99 % accuracy. You take the test and it comes out positive. What is the chance that you are actually positive? Common sense would suggest that there is a …

## Statistics is Unintuitive

I routinely come across day to day situations where statistics can be very unintuitive. Consider the case where we are designing an algorithm to identify some outlier - say credit card fraud as an example. Assume I design an algorithm and it is 99.99 % accurate.

Sounds impressive?

That is until …

## Common and Special Cause Variation

Yesterday I mentioned about output vs outcome, and how I prefer to focus on output instead of outcome. The reason being that there are many factors that influence outcome.

Some of those factors are things that you can control. Many are things that you cannot.

Case in point: I recently …

## Output vs Outcome

There is a a lot of discussion these days on output vs outcome. Most take the position that we should focus on outcome instead of output.

The gist of the argument is that there is no value in measuring output because unless it impacts the outcome it is wasted. What …

## Writing is a form of thinking

While reading about note taking philosophies, I came across a sentence which can be paraphrased as follows:

Writing is a form of thinking. When you write, you clarify your thoughts and make it concrete

I can relate to this. I have often said that the best way to learn a …

## PARA Method of Note Taking

Divide notes into 4 categories

• Projects
• Areas
• Resources
• Archives

Projects contain actionable things that you are working on, which have a clear end point. Example: "Hire a Python Developer"

Areas contain broad areas of responsibility and long term goals, but don't involve actionable tasks. Eg: Technical Hiring

Resources are content …

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